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How the Score Calculator works

/calc is a WCA result probability calculator. Given each player's five solve times, it simulates win probability for Ao5 / Mo3 and other formats, and plots KDE curves. Ported from carykh/hthgrapher.

Two tabs

How to use (Compare mode)

1
Pick an event
The event selector at the bottom switches events. All times are cleared and WR defaults update for the new event.
2
Load sample data
Click the "World TOP 2" button to auto-load KDE data for WR #1 and WR #2 of the current event. Avatars appear when data is ready.
3
Enter times
Click any cell to enter times in centiseconds (cs). The on-screen numpad also works. Enter -1 for DNF and leave 0 for DNS.
4
Read win probability
The stats panel above the chart updates live: mean, std, and "P1 beats P2" win probability. Probability is computed by Monte Carlo sampling the KDE.
5
Replace with a real cuber
The search field next to each avatar loads any WCA cuber's history to generate a real KDE. The "me" button links your own WCA account (login required in the top right).

Algorithm

A Gaussian KDE is fit to each player's history with Silverman-rule adaptive bandwidth. Win probability comes from 10,000 simulated Ao5 rounds (5 samples from each KDE, average, compare). FMC uses move-count distributions; MBLD uses a custom score function.

See also